Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.273225 14.034091 15.944750 18.170202 20.689373 23.450837 26.705684
2024-10-13 10.036972 12.475764 15.333866 18.923540 23.304400 28.469654 35.014527
2024-10-20 8.494245 11.140161 14.397789 18.690515 24.184753 30.966492 39.957353
2024-10-27 7.005351 9.641129 13.032843 17.697834 23.926181 31.931704 42.976190
2024-11-03 6.380042 9.146520 12.841820 18.110996 25.399688 35.090316 48.910218
2024-11-10 5.866427 8.728667 12.683700 18.510366 26.831915 38.237212 54.992975
2024-11-17 5.258287 8.101549 12.157078 18.316726 27.379383 40.155674 59.448859
2024-11-24 4.697339 7.479535 11.568405 17.959088 27.627203 41.620689 63.300130
2024-12-01 4.313310 7.081791 11.265103 17.979201 28.401366 43.856722 68.371500
2024-12-08 4.044375 6.833755 11.159615 18.276595 29.591990 46.754274 74.577063
2024-12-15 3.768904 6.546920 10.964138 18.406123 30.512565 49.273769 80.327515
2024-12-22 3.463407 6.180938 10.608472 18.242168 30.939694 51.030739 84.960256
2024-12-29 3.241441 5.942462 10.450883 18.404197 31.927634 53.769737 91.393699
2025-01-05 3.113089 5.854930 10.537808 18.980124 33.636607 57.771863 100.127618
2025-01-12 2.870628 5.540411 10.207253 18.806788 34.051754 59.649175 105.417486
2025-01-19 2.520651 4.997210 9.431526 17.789395 32.928817 58.862679 106.129956
2025-01-26 2.418802 4.908652 9.460854 18.210905 34.359400 62.504244 114.656753
2025-02-02 2.321281 4.819153 9.479711 18.610254 35.768459 66.177231 123.431791
2025-02-09 2.153589 4.576864 9.193514 18.416307 36.071498 67.899788 128.810782
2025-02-16 1.980484 4.308138 8.835458 18.056596 36.034863 68.996897 133.099069
2025-02-23 1.866559 4.150564 8.680599 18.076886 36.714444 71.429879 139.964863
2025-03-02 1.791893 4.068587 8.668528 18.375793 37.945683 74.945618 149.032960
2025-03-09 1.704526 3.951745 8.576767 18.505998 38.849366 77.885291 157.154693